电力行业：行业景气好转在即

<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="WORD-BREAK: break-all; LINE-HEIGHT: 21pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">中电联近日公布了<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份全国电力工业生产简况。</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">
                        <br/><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">　　<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月，用电量、发电量分别同比增长<span lang="EN-US">13.04%</span>、<span lang="EN-US">14.0%</span>，其中水电、火电、核电发电量分别同比增长<span lang="EN-US">11.4%</span>、<span lang="EN-US">13.4%</span>和<span lang="EN-US">40.1%</span>；<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月，平均利用小时<span lang="EN-US">1157</span>小时，同比降低<span lang="EN-US">20</span>小时，降幅<span lang="EN-US">1.70%</span>；其中水电<span lang="EN-US">564</span>小时，同比降低<span lang="EN-US">11</span>个小时，降幅<span lang="EN-US">1.91%</span>；火电<span lang="EN-US">1282</span>小时，同比降低<span lang="EN-US">20</span>小时，降幅<span lang="EN-US">1.54%</span>；<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月，新投产装机<span lang="EN-US">1246.04</span>万千瓦，其中火电<span lang="EN-US">1062.91</span>万千瓦，水电<span lang="EN-US">99.08</span>万千瓦，风电<span lang="EN-US">74.15</span>万千瓦。<span lang="EN-US">&nbsp; <br/><br/></span>　　主要观点：<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span></span><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">　　一、经济增长放缓，<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月用电增速低于去年同期</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">
                        <br/><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">　　<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月，全国工业增加值同比增长<span lang="EN-US">16.4%</span>，较去年同期增速下降<span lang="EN-US">1.9</span>个百分点。用电量增速和发电量增速则同比分别下降<span lang="EN-US">1.88</span>和<span lang="EN-US">2.5</span>个百分点。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　<span lang="EN-US">1</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月的用电需求增速高于<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月，但低于<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月单月增速。受<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月下旬至<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月中旬的灾害天气影响，<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月的用电需求受到压制，并没有充分反映社会生产需求。<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月份单月用电量的高增速主要是因为灾害天气过后，一方面生产损失电量得到了弥补，另一方面恢复重建工作带动了相当一部分的新增用电需求。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　<span lang="EN-US">2</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月的用电需求增速低于去年同期。我们认为这主要是由于国内外经济形势变化导致国内经济增长放缓的原因。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　<span lang="EN-US">3</span>、考虑<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份的用电需求可能仍在某种程度上包含雪灾后的反弹<a href="http://www.selectme.cn/" target="_blank" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 14px; COLOR: #0000ff;">因素</a>，因此我们预计后续各月的用电需求增速可能会小幅回落。全年预计在<span lang="EN-US">12%</span>～<span lang="EN-US">13%</span>之间。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　<span lang="EN-US">4</span>、分地区来看，用电量增速最快的几个省份是广西<span lang="EN-US">(22.52%)</span>，内蒙古<span lang="EN-US">(20.90%)</span>、安徽<span lang="EN-US">(20.09%)</span>、河南<span lang="EN-US">(18.01%)</span>、甘肃<span lang="EN-US">(17.37%)</span>、新疆<span lang="EN-US">(17.30%)</span>等，多处于中西部地区，我们认为主要是受当地耗能产业发展的带动，因而用电增速较快。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span></span><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">　　二、新增装机回落，利用小时降幅收窄 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><br/></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">　　<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份，新投产装机较去年同期<span lang="EN-US">1313</span>万千瓦有所回落，考虑基数较之<span lang="EN-US">06</span>年底更大，增幅回落更为明显。但从<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月单月来看，火电新增装机<span lang="EN-US">470.76</span>万千瓦，较去年同期有所增长<span lang="EN-US">(</span>见图表<span lang="EN-US">1)</span>。<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月底，火电装机同比增长<span lang="EN-US">13.9%</span>，增速较<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年底增速<span lang="EN-US">(14.6%)</span>下降<span lang="EN-US">0.7</span>个百分点。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　从<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份单月来看，火电利用小时较<span lang="EN-US">07</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月有所回升。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月全国火电平均利用小时为<span lang="EN-US">1282</span>小时，比去年同期降低<span lang="EN-US">20</span>小时，下滑幅度进一步收窄<span lang="EN-US">(</span>见图表<span lang="EN-US">3)</span>。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span>　　预计<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年全年基建新增装机在<span lang="EN-US">8000</span>～<span lang="EN-US">9000</span>万千瓦左右，预计其中火电新增装机大约在<span lang="EN-US">7500</span>万千瓦左右，考虑关停小火电机组<span lang="EN-US">1300</span>万千瓦，则全年净增火电装机<span lang="EN-US">6200</span>万千瓦，较<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年新增装机继续下滑。我们认为只要经济能维持相对的稳定，下半年利用小时反转基本可以确立。<span lang="EN-US">
                                <br/><br/></span></span><b><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">　　三、<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月水电利用小时较去年同期继续下滑</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">
                        <br/><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">　　据全国<span lang="EN-US">422</span>座大型水库统计，<chsdate year="2008" month="4" day="1" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" wst="on"><span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1</span>日</chsdate>蓄水总量为<span lang="EN-US">1662.3</span>亿立方米，比上月初减少<span lang="EN-US">52.0</span>亿立方米，比去年同期偏少<span lang="EN-US">51.9</span>亿立方米。<span lang="EN-US">1</span>～<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月水电累计利用小时为<span lang="EN-US">564</span>小时，比去年同期降低<span lang="EN-US">11</span>个小时，同比下降<span lang="EN-US">1.91%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p>